2026 races ranked by probability of a Democratic win
Each list runs from the most to the least likely Democratic win, so a row's rank is the number of races Democrats win if they take every race down to it. model is the Race to the WH forecast, which incorporates the polls (its site says “Last Updated on Nov 3, 12:12 AM ET”). market is the Kalshi prediction-market price for a Democratic win when the page was generated. Rows are sorted by model; the dashed line marks p = 0.5.
Senate (35 races)
Democrats hold 34 seats not on the ballot and need 51 (the Vice President is a Republican), so the first 17 races: the starred line.
| # | State | Democrat | Republican | model | market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján | Larry Marker | 99.9% | 100.0% |
| 2 | Colorado | John Hickenlooper | Mark Baisley | 99.8% | 100.0% |
| 3 | Illinois | Juliana Stratton | Don Tracy | 99.8% | 100.0% |
| 4 | Massachusetts | Ed Markey | John Deaton | 99.7% | 100.0% |
| 5 | Rhode Island | Jack Reed | Ray McKay | 99.6% | 100.0% |
| 6 | Oregon | Jeff Merkley | David Smith | 99.3% | 100.0% |
| 7 | Delaware | Chris Coons | Michael Katz | 99.2% | 100.0% |
| 8 | Virginia | Mark Warner | Bert Mizusawa | 99.1% | 100.0% |
| 9 | Georgia | Jon Ossoff | Mike Collins | 98.7% | 100.0% |
| 10 | New Jersey | Cory Booker | Justin Murphy | 98.6% | 100.0% |
| 11 | Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | 98.0% | 100.0% |
| 12 | North Carolina | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | 97.5% | 100.0% |
| 13 | New Hampshire | Chris Pappas | John Sununu | 91.9% | 100.0% |
| 14 | Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | 88.3% | 100.0% |
| 15 | Texas | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | 81.3% | 100.0% |
| 16 | Maine | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | 76.3% | 100.0% |
| 17 | Ohio | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | 69.1% | 100.0% |
| ★ Democratic majority if every race above is won | |||||
| 18 | Iowa | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | 65.2% | 100.0% |
| 19 | Alaska | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | 64.1% | 87.5% |
| 20 | Kansas | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | 63.2% | 100.0% |
| p = 0.5 | |||||
| 21 | South Carolina | Annie Andrews | Darline Graham | 39.7% | 100.0% |
| 22 | Florida | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | 17.4% | 15.5% |
| 23 | Louisiana | Jamie Davis | Julia Letlow | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| 24 | Mississippi | Scott Colom | Cindy Hyde-Smith | 10.5% | 83.5% |
| 25 | South Dakota | Brian Bengs | Mike Rounds | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 26 | Alabama | Everett Wess | Barry Moore | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| 27 | Idaho | Todd Achilles | Jim Risch | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| 28 | Wyoming | James Byrd | Harriet Hageman | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| 29 | Kentucky | Charles Booker | Andy Barr | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 30 | Arkansas | Hallie Shoffner | Tom Cotton | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 31 | West Virginia | Rachel Anderson | Shelley Moore Capito | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 32 | Oklahoma | Jasmine Thomas | Kevin Hern | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 33 | Tennessee | Marquita Bradshaw | Bill Hagerty | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 34 | Montana | (no Democrat; Ind. Seth Bodnar 21.9%) | Kurt Alme | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 35 | Nebraska | (no Democrat; Ind. Dan Osborn 20.8%) | Pete Ricketts | 0.0% | 0.0% |
House, ranks 200-260 of 435
Democrats need 218 seats, so the first 218 races: the starred line. The rank of a row is the number of seats Democrats hold if they win every race down to it.
Ranks 1-199 and 261-435 are omitted. Overall, 201 districts have p < 0.5 and 234 have p ≥ 0.5 (model: Democrats projected to win 234, ranks 1-234). Seat: incumbent party, or open with the party that holds it. Percentages after a name are that candidate's own chance where a district has two candidates of the same party.
| # | Dist. | Seat | Candidates | model | market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200 | NE-2 | open R | Denise Powell (D 92%) vs Brinker Harding (R 8%) | 92.5% | 100.0% |
| 201 | CA-13 | D inc | Adam Gray (D 92%) vs Kevin Lincoln (R 8%) | 92.4% | 100.0% |
| 202 | TX-28 | D inc | Henry Cuellar (D 92%) vs Tano Tijerina (R 8%) | 91.5% | 100.0% |
| 203 | NV-1 | D inc | Dina Titus (D 91%) vs Carrie Buck (R 9%) | 91.2% | 100.0% |
| 204 | NY-3 | D inc | Tom Suozzi (D 91%) vs Mike LiPetri (R 9%) | 91.1% | 99.9% |
| 205 | NM-2 | D inc | Gabe Vasquez (D 89%) vs Greg Cunningham (R 11%) | 89.4% | 100.0% |
| 206 | NJ-7 | R inc | Rebecca Bennett (D 88%) vs Thomas Kean Jr. (R 12%) | 88.1% | 100.0% |
| 207 | CA-48 | open R | Marni von Wilpert (D 87%) vs Jim Desmond (R 13%) | 87.1% | 99.2% |
| 208 | AZ-6 | R inc | JoAnna Mendoza (D 87%) vs Juan Ciscomani (R 13%) | 86.6% | 99.4% |
| 209 | NC-11 | open R | Jamie Ager (D 86%) vs Jennifer Balkcom (R 14%) | 86.4% | 100.0% |
| 210 | CA-22 | R inc | Randy Villegas (D 86%) vs David Valadao (R 14%) | 86.1% | 99.6% |
| 211 | OH-9 | D inc | Marcy Kaptur (D 85%) vs Derek Merrin (R 15%) | 84.9% | 100.0% |
| 212 | VA-2 | R inc | Elaine Luria (D 85%) vs Jen Kiggans (R 15%) | 84.6% | 100.0% |
| 213 | WA-3 | D inc | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D 84%) vs John Braun (R 16%) | 84.3% | 99.0% |
| 214 | FL-14 | D inc | Kathy Castor (D 83%) vs Mike Beltran (R 17%) | 83.0% | 100.0% |
| 215 | FL-25 | D inc | Jared Moskowitz (D 82%) vs Scott Singer (R 18%) | 81.7% | 100.0% |
| 216 | PA-7 | R inc | Bob Brooks (D 81%) vs Ryan Mackenzie (R 19%) | 80.6% | 100.0% |
| 217 | CO-8 | R inc | Manny Rutinel (D 80%) vs Gabe Evans (R 20%) | 79.7% | 100.0% |
| 218 | NC-1 | D inc | Don Davis (D 80%) vs Laurie Buckhout (R 20%) | 79.6% | 100.0% |
| ★ Democratic majority if every race above is won | |||||
| 219 | AZ-1 | open R | Amish Shah (D 74%) vs Jay Feely (R 26%) | 73.7% | 98.6% |
| 220 | IA-3 | R inc | Sarah Trone Garriott (D 72%) vs Zach Nunn (R 28%) | 72.0% | 100.0% |
| 221 | PA-8 | R inc | Paige Cognetti (D 72%) vs Rob Bresnahan (R 28%) | 71.6% | 100.0% |
| 222 | FL-22 | open D | Pia Dandiya (D 69%) vs Casey Askar (R 31%) | 68.8% | 100.0% |
| 223 | MI-7 | R inc | William Lawrence (D 66%) vs Tom Barrett (R 34%) | 66.2% | 100.0% |
| 224 | NY-17 | R inc | Cait Conley (D 66%) vs Mike Lawler (R 34%) | 66.2% | 99.6% |
| 225 | TX-35 | open D | Johnny C. Garcia (D 64%) vs Carlos De La Cruz (R 36%) | 64.4% | 100.0% |
| 226 | IA-1 | R inc | Christina Bohannan (D 64%) vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R 36%) | 64.3% | 100.0% |
| 227 | WI-3 | R inc | Rebecca Cooke (D 64%) vs Derrick Van Orden (R 36%) | 64.1% | 100.0% |
| 228 | PA-10 | R inc | Janelle Stelson (D 63%) vs Scott Perry (R 37%) | 63.1% | 100.0% |
| 229 | TX-15 | R inc | Bobby Pulido (D 60%) vs Monica De La Cruz (R 40%) | 60.3% | 100.0% |
| 230 | MT-1 | open R | Sam Forstag (D 57%) vs Aaron Flint (R 43%) | 57.1% | 99.0% |
| 231 | IA-2 | open R | Lindsay James (D 54%) vs Joe Mitchell (R 46%) | 54.1% | 100.0% |
| 232 | VA-1 | R inc | Shannon Taylor (D 52%) vs Rob Wittman (R 48%) | 52.3% | 99.2% |
| 233 | TX-23 | open R | Katy Padilla Stout (D 51%) vs Brandon Herrera (R 49%) | 51.4% | 100.0% |
| 234 | FL-9 | D inc | Darren Soto (D 50%) vs Dan Green (R 50%) | 50.1% | 98.9% |
| p = 0.5 | |||||
| 235 | TX-34 | D inc | Vicente Gonzalez (D 49%) vs Eric Flores (R 51%) | 49.3% | 100.0% |
| 236 | MI-10 | open R | Christina Hines (D 48%) vs Michael Bouchard Jr. (R 52%) | 48.0% | 99.0% |
| 237 | PA-1 | R inc | Bob Harvie (D 45%) vs Brian Fitzpatrick (R 55%) | 45.3% | 100.0% |
| 238 | KY-6 | open R | Zach Dembo (D 43%) vs Ralph Alvarado (R 57%) | 42.6% | 100.0% |
| 239 | SC-1 | open R | Nancy S. Lacore (D 42%) vs Smith (R 58%) | 42.4% | 98.1% |
| 240 | MI-4 | R inc | Sean McCann (D 41%) vs Bill Huizenga (R 59%) | 41.2% | 99.2% |
| 241 | FL-7 | open R | Bale Dalton (D 40%) vs Ryan Elijah (R 60%) | 39.8% | 1.6% |
| 242 | CO-5 | R inc | Jessica Killin (D 38%) vs Jeff Crank (R 62%) | 38.4% | 96.0% |
| 243 | MN-1 | R inc | Jake Johnson (D 34%) vs Brad Finstad (R 66%) | 34.2% | 94.0% |
| 244 | MO-2 | R inc | Fred Wellman (D 34%) vs Ann Wagner (R 66%) | 34.2% | 100.0% |
| 245 | OH-7 | R inc | Brian Poindexter (D 34%) vs Max Miller (R 66%) | 34.1% | 100.0% |
| 246 | NY-21 | open R | Blake Gendebien (D 34%) vs Anthony Constantino (R 66%) | 33.8% | 2.0% |
| 247 | ME-2 | open D | Matt Dunlap (D 29%) vs Paul LePage (R 71%) | 29.4% | 10.5% |
| 248 | TN-9 | open D | Justin J. Pearson (D 29%) vs Brent Taylor (R 71%) | 29.0% | 0.6% |
| 249 | VA-5 | R inc | Tom Perriello (D 23%) vs John McGuire (R 77%) | 22.8% | 6.0% |
| 250 | TN-5 | open R | Chaz Molder (D 22%) vs Charlie Hatcher (R 78%) | 21.6% | 0.0% |
| 251 | NV-2 | open R | Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D 21%) vs David Flippo (R 79%) | 21.3% | 99.0% |
| 252 | AL-2 | D inc | Shomari Figures (D 20%) vs Rhett Marques (R 80%) | 19.5% | 100.0% |
| 253 | WI-1 | R inc | Mitchell Berman (D 19%) vs Bryan Steil (R 81%) | 19.4% | 100.0% |
| 254 | OH-10 | R inc | Kristina Knickerbocker (D 18%) vs Mike Turner (R 82%) | 17.7% | 99.0% |
| 255 | AZ-2 | R inc | Jonathan Nez (D 18%) vs Eli Crane (R 82%) | 17.5% | 69.5% |
| 256 | FL-16 | open R | Kelly Kirschner (D 18%) vs Sydney Gruters (R 82%) | 17.5% | 0.0% |
| 257 | OH-15 | R inc | Don Leonard (D 17%) vs Mike Carey (R 83%) | 17.1% | 100.0% |
| 258 | NY-1 | R inc | Chris Gallant (D 16%) vs Nick LaLota (R 84%) | 15.9% | 5.4% |
| 259 | CO-4 | R inc | Eileen Laubacher (D 16%) vs Lauren Boebert (R 84%) | 15.7% | 97.8% |
| 260 | FL-2 | open R | Amanda Green (D 14%) vs Austin Rogers (R 86%) | 13.5% | 0.0% |
Governors (36 races)
Democrats hold 6 governorships not on the ballot and need 26 of 50, so the first 20 races: the starred line.
| # | State | Democrat | Republican | model | market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | California | Xavier Becerra | Steve Hilton | 99.9% | 100.0% |
| 2 | Connecticut | Ned Lamont | Ryan Fazio | 99.9% | 100.0% |
| 3 | New York | Kathy Hochul | Bruce Blakeman | 99.9% | 100.0% |
| 4 | Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro | Stacy Garrity | 99.9% | 100.0% |
| 5 | Illinois | J.B. Pritzker | Darren Bailey | 99.6% | 100.0% |
| 6 | Maryland | Wes Moore | Dan Cox | 99.6% | 100.0% |
| 7 | Massachusetts | Maura Healey | Michael Minogue | 99.6% | 100.0% |
| 8 | Hawaii | Josh Green | Gary Cordery | 99.4% | 100.0% |
| 9 | Colorado | Phil Weiser | Victor Marx | 96.3% | 100.0% |
| 10 | Rhode Island | Helena Foulkes | Aaron Guckian | 95.0% | 100.0% |
| 11 | Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar | Lisa Demuth | 93.7% | 100.0% |
| 12 | Maine | Hannah Pingree | Robert Charles | 93.5% | 100.0% |
| 13 | Iowa | Rob Sand | Zach Lahn | 93.2% | 100.0% |
| 14 | Michigan | Jocelyn Benson | John James | 90.1% | 100.0% |
| 15 | Arizona | Katie Hobbs | Andy Biggs | 89.8% | 100.0% |
| 16 | New Mexico | Deb Haaland | Gregg Hull | 89.3% | 100.0% |
| 17 | Ohio | Amy Acton | Vivek Ramaswamy | 82.7% | 100.0% |
| 18 | Alaska | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | Bernadette Wilson | 80.2% | 99.9% |
| 19 | Oregon | Tina Kotek | Christine Drazan | 77.7% | 100.0% |
| 20 | Wisconsin | David Crowley | Tom Tiffany | 64.6% | 100.0% |
| ★ Democratic majority if every race above is won | |||||
| 21 | Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms | Rick Jackson | 51.1% | 100.0% |
| p = 0.5 | |||||
| 22 | Nevada | Aaron Ford | Joseph Lombardo | 43.8% | 100.0% |
| 23 | Texas | Gina Hinojosa | Greg Abbott | 26.4% | 100.0% |
| 24 | Kansas | Cindy Holscher | Ty Masterson | 25.0% | 98.4% |
| 25 | Nebraska | Lynne Walz | Jim Pillen | 21.3% | 0.0% |
| 26 | Vermont | Amanda Janoo | Phil Scott | 16.5% | 0.0% |
| 27 | South Carolina | Jermaine Johnson | Alan Wilson | 12.7% | 0.0% |
| 28 | Florida | David Jolly | Byron Donalds | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| 29 | Alabama | Doug Jones | Tommy Tuberville | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| 30 | Oklahoma | Cyndi Munson | Mike Mazzei | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| 31 | South Dakota | Daniel Ahlers | Larry Rhoden | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 32 | New Hampshire | Cindy Warmington | Kelly Ayotte | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 33 | Tennessee | Jerri Green | Marsha Blackburn | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 34 | Wyoming | Ken Casner | Eric Barlow | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| 35 | Idaho | Terri Pickens | Brad Little | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| 36 | Arkansas | Fredrick Love | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.5% | 0.0% |