2026 races ranked by probability of a Democratic win
Each list runs from the most to the least likely Democratic win, so a row's rank is the number of races Democrats win if they take every race down to it. model is the Race to the WH forecast, which incorporates the polls (its site says “Last Updated on Oct 22, 2:10 PM ET”). market is the Kalshi prediction-market price for a Democratic win when the page was generated. Rows are sorted by model; the dashed line marks p = 0.5.
Senate (35 races)
Democrats hold 34 seats not on the ballot and need 51 (the Vice President is a Republican), so the first 17 races: the starred line.
| # | State | Democrat | Republican | model | market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Massachusetts | Ed Markey | John Deaton | 99.7% | 98.3% |
| 2 | Illinois | Juliana Stratton | Don Tracy | 99.6% | 98.6% |
| 3 | New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján | Larry Marker | 99.6% | 96.5% |
| 4 | Rhode Island | Jack Reed | Ray McKay | 99.6% | 98.6% |
| 5 | Colorado | John Hickenlooper | Mark Baisley | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| 6 | Oregon | Jeff Merkley | David Smith | 99.0% | 98.5% |
| 7 | Delaware | Chris Coons | Michael Katz | 98.9% | 98.2% |
| 8 | Virginia | Mark Warner | Bert Mizusawa | 98.4% | 97.8% |
| 9 | New Jersey | Cory Booker | Justin Murphy | 97.6% | 96.8% |
| 10 | Georgia | Jon Ossoff | Mike Collins | 95.8% | 95.4% |
| 11 | North Carolina | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | 93.6% | 96.2% |
| 12 | New Hampshire | Chris Pappas | John Sununu | 90.5% | 89.5% |
| 13 | Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | 88.6% | 87.5% |
| 14 | Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | 85.1% | 69.0% |
| 15 | Texas | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | 74.2% | 67.5% |
| 16 | Maine | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | 69.7% | 65.5% |
| 17 | Ohio | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | 68.9% | 69.5% |
| ★ Democratic majority if every race above is won | |||||
| 18 | Alaska | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | 58.9% | 75.5% |
| 19 | Iowa | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | 57.1% | 42.5% |
| p = 0.5 | |||||
| 20 | Kansas | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | 49.6% | 38.5% |
| 21 | South Carolina | Annie Andrews | Darline Graham | 20.6% | 18.5% |
| 22 | Florida | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | 19.7% | 8.6% |
| 23 | Louisiana | Jamie Davis | Julia Letlow | 13.1% | 6.2% |
| 24 | Mississippi | Scott Colom | Cindy Hyde-Smith | 11.4% | 9.7% |
| 25 | South Dakota | Brian Bengs | Mike Rounds | 9.9% | 0.5% |
| 26 | Idaho | Todd Achilles | Jim Risch | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| 27 | Alabama | Everett Wess | Barry Moore | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| 28 | Kentucky | Charles Booker | Andy Barr | 1.4% | 3.2% |
| 29 | Arkansas | Hallie Shoffner | Tom Cotton | 1.2% | 4.5% |
| 30 | Wyoming | James Byrd | Harriet Hageman | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| 31 | Tennessee | Marquita Bradshaw | Bill Hagerty | 1.0% | 3.9% |
| 32 | Oklahoma | Jasmine Thomas | Kevin Hern | 0.6% | 2.8% |
| 33 | West Virginia | Rachel Anderson | Shelley Moore Capito | 0.6% | 2.5% |
| 34 | Montana | (no Democrat; Ind. Seth Bodnar 22.7%) | Kurt Alme | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| 35 | Nebraska | (no Democrat; Ind. Dan Osborn 27.1%) | Pete Ricketts | 0.0% | 0.2% |
House, ranks 200-260 of 435
Democrats need 218 seats, so the first 218 races: the starred line. The rank of a row is the number of seats Democrats hold if they win every race down to it.
Ranks 1-199 and 261-435 are omitted. Overall, 199 districts have p < 0.5 and 236 have p ≥ 0.5 (model: Democrats projected to win 236, ranks 1-236). Seat: incumbent party, or open with the party that holds it. Percentages after a name are that candidate's own chance where a district has two candidates of the same party.
| # | Dist. | Seat | Candidates | model | market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200 | NM-2 | D inc | Gabe Vasquez (D 87%) vs Greg Cunningham (R 13%) | 87.4% | 90.8% |
| 201 | NY-4 | D inc | Laura Gillen (D 87%) vs Jeanine Driscoll (R 13%) | 87.4% | 92.3% |
| 202 | NY-3 | D inc | Tom Suozzi (D 87%) vs Mike LiPetri (R 13%) | 87.1% | 91.5% |
| 203 | NE-2 | open R | Denise Powell (D 87%) vs Brinker Harding (R 13%) | 86.6% | 95.3% |
| 204 | CA-6 | R inc | Richard Pan (D 86%) vs Kevin Kiley (I 14%) | 86.1% | 94.8% |
| 205 | NV-1 | D inc | Dina Titus (D 86%) vs Carrie Buck (R 14%) | 86.0% | 95.9% |
| 206 | CA-13 | D inc | Adam Gray (D 83%) vs Kevin Lincoln (R 17%) | 82.6% | 94.2% |
| 207 | OH-9 | D inc | Marcy Kaptur (D 83%) vs Derek Merrin (R 17%) | 82.6% | 77.5% |
| 208 | FL-14 | D inc | Kathy Castor (D 82%) vs Mike Beltran (R 18%) | 82.0% | 68.5% |
| 209 | CA-48 | open R | Marni von Wilpert (D 80%) vs Jim Desmond (R 20%) | 80.3% | 92.3% |
| 210 | CA-22 | R inc | Randy Villegas (D 79%) vs David Valadao (R 21%) | 79.1% | 90.5% |
| 211 | VA-2 | R inc | Elaine Luria (D 79%) vs Jen Kiggans (R 21%) | 78.7% | 89.0% |
| 212 | NC-1 | D inc | Don Davis (D 77%) vs Laurie Buckhout (R 23%) | 76.8% | 78.5% |
| 213 | MI-7 | R inc | William Lawrence (D 75%) vs Tom Barrett (R 25%) | 75.4% | 74.5% |
| 214 | CO-8 | R inc | Manny Rutinel (D 73%) vs Gabe Evans (R 27%) | 73.4% | 83.5% |
| 215 | NC-11 | open R | Jamie Ager (D 73%) vs Jennifer Balkcom (R 27%) | 72.6% | 81.5% |
| 216 | WA-3 | D inc | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D 72%) vs John Braun (R 28%) | 72.4% | 91.9% |
| 217 | AZ-6 | R inc | JoAnna Mendoza (D 71%) vs Juan Ciscomani (R 29%) | 70.6% | 89.5% |
| 218 | PA-10 | R inc | Janelle Stelson (D 70%) vs Scott Perry (R 30%) | 70.0% | 83.0% |
| ★ Democratic majority if every race above is won | |||||
| 219 | PA-8 | R inc | Paige Cognetti (D 68%) vs Rob Bresnahan (R 32%) | 67.6% | 80.0% |
| 220 | PA-7 | R inc | Bob Brooks (D 66%) vs Ryan Mackenzie (R 34%) | 65.9% | 87.5% |
| 221 | NY-17 | R inc | Cait Conley (D 64%) vs Mike Lawler (R 36%) | 63.9% | 61.5% |
| 222 | FL-25 | D inc | Jared Moskowitz (D 64%) vs Scott Singer (R 36%) | 63.5% | 87.5% |
| 223 | AZ-1 | open R | Amish Shah (D 63%) vs Jay Feely (R 37%) | 63.3% | 84.0% |
| 224 | FL-22 | open D | Pia Dandiya (D 63%) vs Casey Askar (R 37%) | 63.3% | 61.5% |
| 225 | IA-3 | R inc | Sarah Trone Garriott (D 63%) vs Zach Nunn (R 37%) | 63.0% | 82.5% |
| 226 | IA-1 | R inc | Christina Bohannan (D 59%) vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R 41%) | 58.7% | 91.9% |
| 227 | TX-34 | D inc | Vicente Gonzalez (D 58%) vs Eric Flores (R 42%) | 57.9% | 83.5% |
| 228 | WI-3 | R inc | Rebecca Cooke (D 57%) vs Derrick Van Orden (R 43%) | 56.6% | 78.0% |
| 229 | IA-2 | open R | Lindsay James (D 50%) vs Joe Mitchell (R 50%) | 50.5% | 62.5% |
| 230 | VA-1 | R inc | Shannon Taylor (D 50%) vs Rob Wittman (R 50%) | 50.5% | 60.5% |
| 231 | FL-9 | D inc | Darren Soto (D 50%) vs Dan Green (R 50%) | 50.1% | 29.5% |
| 232 | KY-6 | open R | Zach Dembo (D 50%) vs Ralph Alvarado (R 50%) | 50.1% | 43.5% |
| 233 | MO-2 | R inc | Fred Wellman (D 50%) vs Ann Wagner (R 50%) | 50.1% | 35.5% |
| 234 | MT-1 | open R | Sam Forstag (D 50%) vs Aaron Flint (R 50%) | 50.1% | 44.5% |
| 235 | TX-23 | open R | Katy Padilla Stout (D 50%) vs Brandon Herrera (R 50%) | 50.1% | 38.5% |
| 236 | TX-35 | open D | Johnny C. Garcia (D 50%) vs Carlos De La Cruz (R 50%) | 50.1% | 68.5% |
| p = 0.5 | |||||
| 237 | MI-10 | open R | Christina Hines (D 50%) vs Michael Bouchard Jr. (R 50%) | 49.9% | 71.0% |
| 238 | MI-4 | R inc | Sean McCann (D 39%) vs Bill Huizenga (R 61%) | 39.2% | 65.5% |
| 239 | OH-7 | R inc | Brian Poindexter (D 38%) vs Max Miller (R 62%) | 37.9% | 89.5% |
| 240 | CO-5 | R inc | Jessica Killin (D 37%) vs Jeff Crank (R 63%) | 37.2% | 32.0% |
| 241 | ME-2 | open D | Matt Dunlap (D 37%) vs Paul LePage (R 63%) | 36.8% | 43.5% |
| 242 | SC-1 | open R | Nancy S. Lacore (D 36%) vs Smith (R 64%) | 36.0% | 32.5% |
| 243 | PA-1 | R inc | Bob Harvie (D 35%) vs Brian Fitzpatrick (R 65%) | 35.0% | 39.5% |
| 244 | MN-1 | R inc | Jake Johnson (D 34%) vs Brad Finstad (R 66%) | 34.3% | 34.5% |
| 245 | NY-21 | open R | Blake Gendebien (D 33%) vs Anthony Constantino (R 67%) | 33.1% | 30.5% |
| 246 | FL-7 | open R | Bale Dalton (D 32%) vs Ryan Elijah (R 68%) | 31.8% | 28.5% |
| 247 | TX-15 | R inc | Bobby Pulido (D 32%) vs Monica De La Cruz (R 68%) | 31.5% | 88.5% |
| 248 | FL-16 | open R | Kelly Kirschner (D 27%) vs Sydney Gruters (R 73%) | 27.4% | 19.0% |
| 249 | AZ-2 | R inc | Jonathan Nez (D 22%) vs Eli Crane (R 78%) | 22.3% | 37.0% |
| 250 | FL-11 | open R | James Pericola (D 22%) vs Joe Strada (R 78%) | 22.1% | 15.5% |
| 251 | TN-5 | open R | Chaz Molder (D 22%) vs Charlie Hatcher (R 78%) | 22.1% | 9.1% |
| 252 | NV-2 | open R | Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D 20%) vs David Flippo (R 80%) | 20.5% | 38.5% |
| 253 | WI-1 | R inc | Mitchell Berman (D 20%) vs Bryan Steil (R 80%) | 20.0% | 42.5% |
| 254 | NY-1 | R inc | Chris Gallant (D 19%) vs Nick LaLota (R 81%) | 18.9% | 13.5% |
| 255 | VA-5 | R inc | Tom Perriello (D 16%) vs John McGuire (R 84%) | 15.9% | 38.5% |
| 256 | AL-2 | D inc | Shomari Figures (D 16%) vs Rhett Marques (R 84%) | 15.5% | 28.5% |
| 257 | FL-27 | R inc | Eliott Rodriguez (D 15%) vs Maria Elvira Salazar (R 85%) | 15.0% | 34.5% |
| 258 | TN-9 | open D | Justin J. Pearson (D 15%) vs Brent Taylor (R 85%) | 14.6% | 15.5% |
| 259 | OH-15 | R inc | Don Leonard (D 14%) vs Mike Carey (R 86%) | 13.9% | 40.0% |
| 260 | OH-10 | R inc | Kristina Knickerbocker (D 13%) vs Mike Turner (R 87%) | 12.9% | 36.5% |
Governors (36 races)
Democrats hold 6 governorships not on the ballot and need 26 of 50, so the first 20 races: the starred line.
| # | State | Democrat | Republican | model | market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | California | Xavier Becerra | Steve Hilton | 99.9% | 96.7% |
| 2 | Connecticut | Ned Lamont | Ryan Fazio | 99.9% | 96.6% |
| 3 | Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro | Stacy Garrity | 99.9% | 97.5% |
| 4 | Maryland | Wes Moore | Dan Cox | 99.6% | 97.5% |
| 5 | Massachusetts | Maura Healey | Michael Minogue | 99.6% | 96.0% |
| 6 | Hawaii | Josh Green | Gary Cordery | 99.3% | 98.6% |
| 7 | Illinois | J.B. Pritzker | Darren Bailey | 99.3% | 96.7% |
| 8 | New York | Kathy Hochul | Bruce Blakeman | 98.5% | 94.9% |
| 9 | Rhode Island | Helena Foulkes | Aaron Guckian | 92.5% | 95.3% |
| 10 | Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar | Lisa Demuth | 90.6% | 95.2% |
| 11 | Maine | Hannah Pingree | Robert Charles | 90.4% | 94.6% |
| 12 | Colorado | Phil Weiser | Victor Marx | 89.6% | 96.4% |
| 13 | Iowa | Rob Sand | Zach Lahn | 88.3% | 86.5% |
| 14 | Michigan | Jocelyn Benson | John James | 84.0% | 92.5% |
| 15 | Arizona | Katie Hobbs | Andy Biggs | 83.1% | 91.8% |
| 16 | New Mexico | Deb Haaland | Gregg Hull | 82.1% | 93.8% |
| 17 | Alaska | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | Bernadette Wilson | 75.4% | 89.2% |
| 18 | Ohio | Amy Acton | Vivek Ramaswamy | 66.9% | 83.5% |
| 19 | Oregon | Tina Kotek | Christine Drazan | 65.3% | 81.5% |
| 20 | Wisconsin | David Crowley | Tom Tiffany | 54.4% | 80.5% |
| ★ Democratic majority if every race above is won | |||||
| p = 0.5 | |||||
| 21 | Nevada | Aaron Ford | Joseph Lombardo | 37.6% | 65.5% |
| 22 | Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms | Rick Jackson | 32.9% | 60.5% |
| 23 | Kansas | Cindy Holscher | Ty Masterson | 24.6% | 23.5% |
| 24 | Nebraska | Lynne Walz | Jim Pillen | 23.4% | 11.5% |
| 25 | Texas | Gina Hinojosa | Greg Abbott | 23.3% | 33.5% |
| 26 | Vermont | Amanda Janoo | Phil Scott | 21.5% | 26.5% |
| 27 | Florida | David Jolly | Byron Donalds | 17.2% | 19.5% |
| 28 | Alabama | Doug Jones | Tommy Tuberville | 11.0% | 5.8% |
| 29 | Oklahoma | Cyndi Munson | Mike Mazzei | 9.3% | 9.3% |
| 30 | Tennessee | Jerri Green | Marsha Blackburn | 9.2% | 6.2% |
| 31 | South Carolina | Jermaine Johnson | Alan Wilson | 8.1% | 6.6% |
| 32 | New Hampshire | Cindy Warmington | Kelly Ayotte | 7.5% | 5.8% |
| 33 | South Dakota | Daniel Ahlers | Larry Rhoden | 6.7% | 2.8% |
| 34 | Wyoming | Ken Casner | Eric Barlow | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| 35 | Idaho | Terri Pickens | Brad Little | 2.1% | 2.9% |
| 36 | Arkansas | Fredrick Love | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.9% | 3.2% |